You may not have heard of the Dunning-Kruger Effect.

But you’ve definitely experienced it.

It’s one of my favorite ways to understand the startup journey.

Shoutout Ashley Levine who first taught me about:

• Mount Stupid

• Valley of Despair

• Slope of Enlightenment

Yep. Right in this very moment, I can practically guarantee that you and I are both on Mount Stupid in one way or another!

Here’s what Dunning-Kruger is, why it’s awesome, and how it helps at startups!

The Dunning-Kruger Effect

The Dunning-Kruger Effect is a cognitive bias where people with low ability in a specific area give overly positive assessments of their ability. Also, people with high ability in a specific area tend to underestimate their abilities compared to others.

You can read the nerd stuff (research results, critique, methodology) here.

THEN, there’s the internet version which Gemini tells me was mostly a riff off the Gartner Hype Cycle 😂

That’s the one I like, pictured below.

Never let actual science get in the way of a good faux-science business parable, I always say!

David Dunning and Justin Kruger didn’t actual come up with the terms Mt. Stupid or Valley of Despair or the Slope of Enlightenment. That was The Internet, of course!

Dunning-Kruger, The O’Daily Version

Here’s how I understand the Dunning-Kruger Effect.

First, you think you know.

“I totally got this,” you say. “How hard can it be?”

LOLOLOLOL. It feels so good when you’re on Mount Stupid.

Unfortunately, as you proceed, you realize that you are not, in fact, as knowledgable and smart as you thought.

You are plunged into a pit of sadness and hopelessness.

“How am I ever going to learn all that I need to??”

Welcome to the Valley of Despair.

BUT WAIT!

You can learn. It’s slow going. But over time, you can inch your way up the Slope of Enlightenment.

Then, of course, you get to the Plateau of Sustainability which I didn’t really know about until just now so I don’t have many good jokes about it. Sounds nice though!

How To Use It At Your Startup

A startup is basically a never-ending cycle of Mount Stupid → Valley of Despair → Slope of Enlightenment → Plateau of Sustainability, with a lot of painful time spent falling off Mount Stupid over and over again.

Dunning-Kruger is not really a psychological phenomena (for our purposes), but a hilarious, universal language to describe the ups and downs, aggressive learning curve, and confidence roller coaster of a startup.

Examples:

Instead of: “I made a horrible, ego-driven misjudgment and now I’m embarrassed, angry, and overwhelmed.”
Use: “UGH. Mt. Stupid and I didn’t even realize.”

Instead of: “I’m sure this will be easy. We’re really good at it.”
Use: “Am I on Mt. Stupid? Or is this the Slope?”

Instead of: “I am so discouraged, I don’t know even know where to go or how we’re going to fix it.”
Use: “I am in the Valley of Despair right now!”

(Note: I use this frequently when I’m packing the car before a family trip and I don’t know how the hell we’re going to fit 500 items into a single trunk. My husband knows that I will journey through the Valley of Despair but prevail on the Slope of Trunk-Barely-Closing, I mean, Enlightenment. Those 10 minutes in the Valley are very dark, everyone should stay out of Mom’s way, and suggestions are NOT welcome. 😂)

So the next time you make an asinine mistake or it’s a really hard day of “learnings,” just name it.

You’ve been hiking Mt. Stupid.

Declare that you are in the Valley of Despair.

It’s a moment in time, not a forever state.

It’s also hard not to crack a smile.

The tough moment gets easier.

And the Slope of Enlightenment is just ahead. ⛰️

Any favorite faux-science business parables? Had you heard of Dunning-Kruger before?